Prediction Market Expert
About this role
About the Role We're looking for sharp, analytically minded individuals to join a remote AI research project focused on structured forecasting and probability analysis. Your expertise in evaluating real-world events will directly help train and improve AI models that reason about uncertainty. If you follow geopolitics, financial markets, elections, sports, or major world events — and you think in probabilities — this role was made for you. - Type: Hourly Contract - Location: Fully Remote - Commitment: Flexible hours, work on your own schedule What You'll Do - Assess and forecast the outcomes of real-world, industry, and market events - Assign well-reasoned probability estimates grounded in current events and public information - Articulate your reasoning clearly and concisely in structured annotation formats - Review and evaluate prediction-related data for accuracy and consistency - Interpret rapidly evolving news cycles and intelligence signals - Maintain high annotation quality across a range of forecasting tasks Who You Are - Strong probabilistic thinker — you naturally reason in likelihoods, not just certainties - Up-to-date on current events, market trends, or geopolitical developments - Able to articulate your reasoning clearly in writing - Detail-oriented and consistent in your analytical approach - Familiar with prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus) — a plus, but not required - Self-motivated and comfortable working independently in a remote environment Nice to Have - Background in finance, economics, political science, statistics, or journalism - Experience participating in forecasting tournaments or prediction platforms - Familiarity with Bayesian reasoning or structured analytic techniques Why Join Us - Work on cutting-edge AI research with real-world impact - Fully remote and flexible — work when it suits you - Freelance autonomy with the opportunity for ongoing contract work - Contribute your unique analytical perspective to advance AI reasoning capabilities - Join a global community of domain experts shaping the future of AI
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